China’a Communist Party’s Fourth Plenum, held from October 20 to 23, 2025, adopted draft recommendations for the 15th Plan that will guide the 2026–2030 period.
China sets medium-term priorities through national Five-Year Plans. The 14th Plan covers 2021 to 2025 and was approved by the National People’s Congress on March 11, 2021.
What the 14th Plan set out (2021–2025)
The Outline stressed high-quality growth, innovation, and greener development. Key published targets included:
- Grow national R&D spending by more than 7 percent per year during 2021–2025.
- Lift the core digital-economy share to 10 percent of GDP by 2025.
- Raise the urbanization rate of permanent residents to 65 percent by 2025 and expand hukou reforms.
- Embed the dual-circulation framework, with the domestic market as the mainstay and external openness maintained.
For structure and scope, the 14th Plan contains 19 sections and 65 chapters covering the economy, society, environment, and security.
How much progress by late 2025
Official data show faster R&D inputs. Preliminary 2024 figures reported total R&D above 3.6 trillion yuan, up 8.3 percent year on year, with R&D intensity at 2.68 percent of GDP. Digital-economy implementation followed a dedicated plan, targeting the 10 percent share by 2025. On demographics, retirement-age reform was approved in September 2024 and took effect on January 1, 2025, with a gradual increase over 15 years.
What the October 2025 plenum signaled for 2026–2030
The Fourth Plenum reviewed 14th Plan outcomes and adopted Party recommendations for the 15th Plan, previewing the 2026–2030 agenda. Readouts highlight:
- Tech self-reliance and advanced manufacturing at the center of growth policy.
- The push for “new quality productive forces”, defined as innovation-led, high-tech, high-efficiency, and high-quality production systems.
- A continued focus on risk, governance, and anti-corruption alongside economic goals.
What to expect next
The Party’s recommendations are converted by the State Council and NDRC into a government Outline, which goes to the NPC for approval during the Two Sessions. That is how the 14th Plan was adopted on March 11, 2021. If precedent holds, the 15th Plan Outline should reach the NPC in March 2026.
Policy pillars to watch.
- Modern industrial system: advanced manufacturing and smart-green integration tied to national missions.
- Science and tech: accelerated breakthroughs in AI, semiconductors, and space, under “new quality productive forces”.
- Demand-side reforms: follow-through on retirement-age changes and social services to lift consumption’s share.
- Digital China: new rounds of data infrastructure and industry digitalization built on the 2021–2025 plan.
- Green transition: continued steps toward the 2030 carbon-peak track and ecological protection under the “Beautiful China” banner.
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