Despite the large number of users, only 12.7% of crypto wallets on the decentralized betting site Polymarket are profitable.
Per data from Layerhub, an on-chain analytic firm, 87.3% or 149,383 out of the total 171,113 on the betting platform failed to record a profit. A deep dive into these Polymarket’s digital asset addresses revealed that only a few users have recorded significant gains.
Polymarket Wallets by Confirmed Realized Profits. | Source: Layerhub
Polymarket Trading Activity and Profit Distribution
Only 2,138 users made more than $1,000 in profits from the addresses that showed gains; the majority made less than $100. According to the data, approximately 7,400 wallets also made profits in the $100–$1,000 range.
Polymarket facilitates approximately 10.8 million trade volume and has grown into a notable betting hub. Accordingly, the platform noted more than 300,000 daily trades between Oct. 6 and 8.
It is worth noting that only some wallets represent a single trader, as many users manage several wallets to increase their chances of making money on high-risk, high-reward bets.
Wallet Engagement and Open Interest
Regarding engagement, nearly 25,000 addresses have made over 50 trades on the platform. In contrast, about 32,000 wallets have made between 20 and 50 trades, while a more significant percentage, about 58,000 wallets, have only made one to five trades.
This pattern implies that most participants make fewer trades overall, but a core group of traders is active. Influential individuals, including Tesla CEO Elon Musk, have noticed Polymarket’s increasing influence.
Musk posted on Oct. 6 that traditional US presidential election 2024 polls might not be as accurate as Polymarket’s prediction markets. Musk’s remarks coincided with former President Donald Trump’s election odds that saw him overtake Vice President Kamala Harris.
Notably, the X owner’s tweet increased public interest in the platform by about three percentage points.
Trump now leading Kamala by 3% in betting markets. More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line. https://t.co/WrsqZ2z8pp
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 7, 2024
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