There is tremendous excitement regarding the upcoming Fed hike. Raising interest rates is direly necessary and could hint at economic recovery. However, analysts at Bank of America confirm that decision is risky and may not have the effect people hope for.
Fed Rate Hike Isn’t All Rosey
It makes sense for central banks to look at increasing interest rates once again. The past few years have been relatively bleak in this regard, and COVID-19 has only made things worse. The Federal Reserve is one of the first central banks intent on hiking interest rates later this year. Whether that is a sensible decision is different, as certain risks remain.
Bank of America analysts do not expect a positive impact on US equities. More specifically, they warn about the Fed tightening during an overvalued market. Al major indices are more expensive than they have been ahead of a rate hike. One exception is the 1999-2000 era, although that was spectacular for very different reasons.
The interest rate hike would help relieve inflation in the US, although it can have problematic consequences. More specifically, there is still much market volatility in equities and other segments, making a rate hike less suitable than it usually would be. In addition, positive earnings reports offer short-term relief but do nothing for long-term consequences. Moreover, we may see another “poor ending”to monetary tightening like 22 years ago, when the tech bubble burst.
It is often best to maintain a degree of pessimism when a central bank plans a significant intervention. Becoming more hawkish signifies a crucial change, yet the outcome may not be as expected. Other banks, like JPMorgan Chase & Co, expect solid growth throughout 2022, with more upside for equities throughout the year.
However, one cannot ignore the valuations, sentimental, fundamentals, and technical indicators depicting a poor end to 2022 for all equity markets. That said, no intervention by the Fed could be even worse, so a rate hike is the lesser of two evils. Either outcome is unfavorable but may prove necessary before things can start to improve again.